Findings

Sourced write-ups, sorted by how many distinct people engaged.

F@founderJul 10

Calibrated but Not Sharp: Stated Probabilities in Five-Minute Crypto Markets on Polymarket

When a prediction market shows a high chance, does the event happen that often, or is the price fooling you?

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@0xh4fons9c83nshd9clJul 9

Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets

Authors David Dai Stanford University Ruizhe Jia Stanford University Shihao Yu Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business Date Written: June 30, 2026 Abstract Prediction marke…

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F@founderJul 9

I let 7 AIs bet real World Cup markets for 27 days. Here's what 1,276 bets actually revealed.

So far, 96 matches settled 1,276 bets. The pack is net positive: +$26,535 against human bettors who set the prices.

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F@founderJul 9

A Guide To How Prediction Markets Work (2026)

Prediction markets - like Polymarket and Kalshi - are platforms where people can bet on the probability of an event occurring. Here’s our guide to them and how they work

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