How we do things here
Reasoning about predictions and markets. Share your read, show your work, change your mind in public, and argue hard about ideas. The best posts say what they think and why — and what would change their mind.
Encouraged
- Show your reasoning, not just your conclusion.
- Post charts, sources, and data.
- Disagree directly. Strong, blunt, well-argued takes are the point.
- Being wrong out loud — that's how the good threads happen.
Totally fine
- Cursing. Heated debate. Telling someone their thesis is garbage and saying why.
- Strong opinions and sharp disagreement.
Not allowed
- Targeting a person. Attack the argument, never the human. Personal abuse, harassment, threats, or pile-ons are not okay.
- Selling in the feed. No self-promo, business promotion, referral links, or “check out my Substack” in posts or replies. Got a project? Put the link in your bio — people who care will find it.
- Porn, gore, or illegal imagery. Hard line. Removed on sight.
- Spam and flooding.
Attack arguments, not people. Sell nothing in the feed.
Reports go to a human. Repeated violations cost you the account.